Navigating the cross-currents
what EMEA adtech leaders should do next
Back in the Autumn at the Stockholm Programmatic Summit, Henrik von Sydow, Strategic Foresight Manager at Carnegie Investment Bank, set out how Nordic businesses can hold their ground as pressure from overseas mounts.
Now, as we gear up for this year’s summit on 16th June, we take a look back at what happened in 2025, and the macroeconomic outlook for 2026.
Taking control of our future
Henrik opened with three board-level questions: what’s happening in the world, what kind of future can we believe in, and what should we invest in.
Despite new uncertainties, much of the agenda is visible if we look for it. Major political, economic, and sporting milestones are already on the calendar; the job for EMA leaders now is to connect the dots, identify trend lines, and plan accordingly.
The role of the United States and China
Henrik described the US in 2025 as “exporting instability,” pointing to rising tariff barriers and a market volatility shock in the spring. China is flooding global markets with cheap goods, from EVs and solar panels to industrial robots and high-speed rail, the result of massive overcapacity at home.
Those Chinese goods, bouncing off US tariff walls, have redirected into Europe and Asia in increasing volumes. And the tariff picture has crystallised since the Autumn: the EU and US reached a deal locking tariffs on EU exports at 15%, which sounds like relief, but is actually higher than the effective 8.5% rate seen in 2025. EU export growth to the US is expected to slow by a further 4.6% in 2026 as a result. (ING Think, April 2026).
Europe is responding by trading more within itself and with trusted partners. That pivot is now tangible: over the past year, the EU has struck or advanced trade deals with India, Japan, Indonesia, Mexico, and the five Mercosur nations, opening a combined market of over 700 million people. Analysis points to Canada, Australia, Japan, the UK and New Zealand as the most natural homes for EU exports redirected away from the US. (Taipei Times, Feb 2026; CaixaBank Research, Dec 2025).
But, as Henrik warned, we shouldn’t confuse these trends with deglobalisation, as services and technology are still deeply global - and accelerating.
Markets vs. macro
Despite the noise, stocks and other risky investments have held up better than most predicted. Markets still price a soft US landing, with the caveat that the effects of trade policy and higher friction are lagging. The real question isn't how high the tariffs are - it's who ends up paying for them. Consumers through higher prices? Companies through squeezed margins? Or the economy at large through slower growth and inflation?
Last year also threw up a puzzling split: US stocks rose while the dollar fell, a divergence that rattled assumptions about how markets behave. That dollar weakness has continued into 2026. The dollar posted its worst performance among major currencies in 2025, down 8% on the index, with the euro gaining around 11% against it. EUR/USD is now trading around $1.18. (ABN AMRO FX Outlook; LiteFinance, May 2026)
For adtech leaders, this volatility has a direct commercial translation. Some agency heads now expect conservative clients to cut media spend by 5-10% in 2026, as businesses that absorbed tariff costs last year must choose whether to keep doing so, or protect margins by cutting marketing. (Modern Retail, Dec 2025)
Longer sales cycles and growing pressure to prove performance and efficiency are the new normal.
Three wildcards to watch
Trade friction and second-order effects. Beyond on/off tariff debates, boards should model pass-through, margin sensitivity, and supply-chain timing.
The AI investment cycle and tech valuations. In adtech specifically, AI is already reshaping the landscape: US programmatic display spend is on course to exceed $203 billion in 2026, while generative search is beginning to change how web traffic flows and agentic buying is starting to redraw how ads are bought and sold. (eMarketer, Jan 2026; Basis Technologies, Jan 2026) But leaders still need to cut through the noise: is AI genuinely lifting your productivity, or is it mostly hype? And be honest about the harder question: does AI help your business model, or threaten it? Make sure someone specific, at both board and management level, actually owns the AI agenda. Vague collective responsibility is a gap, not a plan.
Central-bank independence. Political pressure on the US Federal Reserve matters well beyond the US. If independence is questioned, the Fed may “listen” more to the White House, tilting towards a more dovish monetary policy to avoid legal or political challenges. But these are dynamics to monitor, not fear.
Resilience is the new efficiency
For Henrik, resilience comes down to three things investors now probe directly: your financial foundations, your operational fitness, and how well you make decisions when things are unclear.
We should strengthen financial foundations by fortifying balance sheets and increasing the long-term value of owned stores. And we should treat geography as a strategy: where you produce and how you route goods now materially impact enterprise value, so boards should map supply-chain avenues rather than rely on single lanes.
The State is back: defence, security, and energy-security are likely beneficiaries of renewed State intervention, while other sectors face elevated risk and should map their headwinds and tailwinds accordingly. Industrial policy, incentives, and export controls are reshaping competitive dynamics for the decade ahead. Teams should be explicit about whether they are a solution to a political problem, or a problem.
Finally, resilience hinges on decision quality under uncertainty. Demonstrate operating discipline and scenario planning. And be ready to discuss pricing power, as well as define who, at both board and management level, owns the AI strategy.
The questions every board should answer in 2026
These are the practical prompts to kick-start the next board meeting:
Geopolitical fluency: Can your leadership team explain clearly how geopolitics affects your business model? Some companies now have a Chief Geopolitical Officer; others weave that thinking into strategy and risk roles. Either way, someone needs to own it.
AI ownership: Who owns the AI strategy at executive and board level? Where are the measurable productivity lifts and cost take-outs?
Pricing and elasticity: What is the plan if input costs or compliance burdens rise? Where can value-based pricing hold?
Supply-chain story: Can you turn fragility into advantage – for example, by offering reliability or speed as a premium capability?
New markets, new partners: Where do nearer-to-home, or like-minded markets like the Middle East, Japan, South Korea, and Canada, unlock growth?
As the world adjusts to the unprecedented macroeconomic pressures, the advice to leaders across EMEA is simple: map what you can see, track the ripple effects you can't yet see, and build plans with options baked in. Resilience isn't caution. It's competitive.
We're looking forward to hearing the next wave of developments - and what they mean for EMEA adtech leaders - live at the Stockholm Programmatic Summit on 16th June. If you haven't already secured your place, you can register at stockholmprogrammaticsummit26.splashthat.com.
